SECURING UKRAINE'S EXPORT POTENTIAL IN THE CONDITIONS OF POST-WAR RECOVERY: INSTITUTIONAL TRANSFORMATION, RESILIENCE AND INVESTMENT PRIORITIES

Abstract

The purpose of the article is to substantiate the organizational and economic mechanism for ensuring, restoring, and developing Ukraine's export potential under martial law and post-war recovery, with a focus on institutional transformation, the transition to a high-tech economic model, and integration into European defense and production value chains. Methodology of research. The achievement of the purpose set in the article is carried out with the help of the following research methods: system analysis (to study strategic documents and empirical data of 2024–2025); structural-logical analysis (to identify key drivers of sectoral transformations in metallurgy, critical raw materials extraction, and the defense industry); Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), specifically a combination of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Weighted Sum Model (WSM), used to develop a ranking system for exporters eligible for state support; generalization method (to systematize investment instruments). Findings. The necessity of shifting from a raw material export model to a high-tech economy with deep integration into global value chains is substantiated. The influence of international support programs, particularly the Ukraine Facility, SAFE, and ReArm Europe, on macroeconomic stability is analyzed. A methodological approach to determining the priority of financial support for exporters is proposed. It is proved that in the conditions of a budget deficit, the highest weight in the ranking of candidates for state support should be given to fiscal efficiency (weight 0.22) and technical modernization/innovation (combined weight 0.33), while logistics has the lowest priority (weight 0.03). Specific mechanisms for attracting investment are identified, including war risk insurance and strategic alliances in the "green steel" and critical raw materials sectors. Practical value. The practical significance lies in the development of a specific ranking system for exporters, which allows the government to objectively allocate limited financial resources to companies that generate the highest tax revenues and implement "green" technologies. The proposed mechanisms contribute to the effective integration of Ukrainian business into the EU economic space, the development of the defense-industrial complex as a new export driver, and the attraction of private capital for the modernization of production facilities (brownfield and greenfield projects) even before the end of active hostilities.